• About
  • Contact
  • The blogger

A STABLE MATCH

A STABLE MATCH

Category Archives: Statistics

Birth rates in Amazonia

09 Thursday Jun 2016

Posted by tjungbau in Probability, Statistics

≈ Leave a comment

Tags

Puzzles, Statistics

To my students:

Consider the following scenario:

In the country of Amazonia boys are valued but girls are worshipped. No mother, however, wants to give birth to multiple girls in order to avoid succession struggles related to the leadership of the family. Thus, every mother gives birth to children precisely until a daughter is born to her.

a) If the probability of giving birth to a son is .5, what ratio of newborns in Amazonia are girls?

b) If the probability of giving birth to a son is 0<s<1, what ratio of newborns in Amazonia are girls?

Why luck matters more than you might think

09 Thursday Jun 2016

Posted by tjungbau in Probability, Statistics

≈ Leave a comment

Tags

Chance, Luck, Success

My (in the not so far) future colleague Robert H. Frank, Professor of Economics at the Samuel P. Curtis Johnson Graduate School of Management at Cornell University, has recently published his new book “Success and Luck“.

While not denouncing the views of those who attribute unexpected turns of their lives and ventures to divine intervention or plain fate, he shares his beliefs about the ubiquity of chance as a determinant of success in both our private and business lives and indicates why many among us simply underestimate, or, alternatively put stronger, under appreciate the consequences of mere random processes. Bob convincingly argues, however, that chance does not only influence our well-being in a consequential manner but deeply affects many of our actively taken decisions.

Due to the fact that chance features prominently as a determinant of entrepreneurial success in my current work on team building, acquisition of inputs and entrepreneurship, I have admit to be naturally biased towards his chain of argumentation.

Nevertheless, I highly recommend every (in fact also non-) academic and student to read his book as it stresses a perspective of our ventures typically under represented in our ex ante analyses and ex post evaluations of actions. While featuring interesting and partially provocative content, it presents itself also easy too read due to him being a very accomplished writer (Bob Frank was a NY Times columnist for more than a decade). A synopsis of his work can be found in this recent piece of the Atlantic. A taste of the book itself is provided by Princeton University Press.

 

A box paradox

28 Monday Sep 2015

Posted by tjungbau in Statistics

≈ Leave a comment

Tags

Bayesian Updating, Puzzles, Statistics

Again credit goes to my former teacher Ulrich Berger:

Suppose you face a choice among two boxes, both of which contain a certain amount of money. You are told that one box contains double the amount of the other box. The position of the higher prize has been determined by a coin flip.

Based on your gut instinct you think about grabbing box A. Then, however, you think back to your high school introduction into probability. Evaluating whether you should take the other box you realize that box B contains either X/2 or 2*X if X is the amount in box A. Since both cases are to occur with equal probability you conclude that box B contains 1/2*(X/2)+1/2*(2*X)=5/4*X. Based on the fact that that 5/4*X exceeds X should you take the other box?

The double Monty

26 Saturday Sep 2015

Posted by tjungbau in Statistics

≈ Leave a comment

Tags

Bayesian Updating, Monty Hall, Puzzles, Statistics

Most of us know the standard version of the Monty Hall “paradox”. If not: Monty Hall, a game show host invites a candidate to choose among three doors (A,B & C), one of of which hides a prize whereas the other two would reveal goats (which might also be perceived as a prize by some. I, however, doubt one would be allowed to actually take the goat.). The candidate chooses door A. Monty reveals a goat behind door B and offers the candidate to either stick to her choice or opt to switch to C. Bayesian updating tells us that it is optimal to switch in 2 out of 3 cases.

Credit to my friend Pantelis Loupos for the idea behind what is to follow: Suppose Monty has two candidates, for simplicity a man and a woman. Upon first request the man chooses A whereas the woman goes for C. Monty reveals that door B was covering a goat and asks both candidates whether they would like to stick to their initial choice or switch to the other candidate’s. Suppose that both would receive the prize if choosing the correct door. Does the Monty Hall “paradox” suggest that by switching doors candidates both increase their chance of winning?

Is there a Monty Hall problem in Who wants to be a Millionaire?

20 Sunday Sep 2015

Posted by tjungbau in Statistics

≈ Leave a comment

Tags

Monty Hall, Puzzles, Statistics, Who wants to be a Millionaire

The basic Monty Hall problem has been discussed far too often to keep track. In his blog, my former teacher Ulrich Berger briefly discusses a conversation appeared on “Who wants to be a Millionaire”:

A candidate faces a multiple choice question with four possible answers, only one of which is correct. She doesn’t know the answer and attaches a probability of 1/4 to each alternative. She chooses A however, not based on any knowledge. Then, before confirming her answer, she recalls that she hasn’t made use of her 50:50 joker, a random mechanism deleting two out of the 3 wrong alternatives. If the candidate chose A for herself before applying the joker and A remains one of the two alternatives on her screen, should she stick to her choice or switch to the other alternative?

Recent Posts

  • George Santos and the ambiguous effects of resume padding: the costs and benefits of lying and misrepresentation in the job market
  • South-Korea’s new regulation on in-app purchases
  • Online Advertising, Data Sharing, and Consumer Control
  • The Strategic Decentralization of Recruiting
  • Branding Vertical Product Line Extensions

Recent Comments

tjungbau on The Trump effect and European…
napagi on Democracy or not?
John on The Trump effect and European…
Efficiency vs. distr… on Applying to multiple specialti…

Archives

  • December 2022
  • September 2021
  • August 2021
  • January 2021
  • December 2020
  • June 2020
  • March 2020
  • November 2019
  • November 2018
  • August 2018
  • July 2018
  • April 2018
  • December 2017
  • February 2017
  • January 2017
  • December 2016
  • November 2016
  • August 2016
  • June 2016
  • April 2016
  • March 2016
  • January 2016
  • December 2015
  • November 2015
  • October 2015
  • September 2015

Categories

  • Academic Organizations
  • Academic Research
  • Antitrust
  • Auction
  • Austria
  • Cartel
  • Corporate Social Responsibility
  • Democracy
  • Digital Economics
  • Economic Growth
  • Economics Laureates
  • Education
  • Electric Vehicles
  • Health
  • Inequality
  • Innovation
  • MBA
  • National Resident Matching Program
  • Oil
  • Online Advertising
  • Organization
  • Politics
  • Probability
  • Self-Driving Cars
  • Signaling
  • Social Dilemma
  • Statistics
  • Strategy
  • Terrorism
  • UBER
  • Voting

Meta

  • Register
  • Log in
  • Entries feed
  • Comments feed
  • WordPress.com

Recent Posts

  • George Santos and the ambiguous effects of resume padding: the costs and benefits of lying and misrepresentation in the job market
  • South-Korea’s new regulation on in-app purchases
  • Online Advertising, Data Sharing, and Consumer Control
  • The Strategic Decentralization of Recruiting
  • Branding Vertical Product Line Extensions

Recent Comments

tjungbau on The Trump effect and European…
napagi on Democracy or not?
John on The Trump effect and European…
Efficiency vs. distr… on Applying to multiple specialti…

Archives

  • December 2022
  • September 2021
  • August 2021
  • January 2021
  • December 2020
  • June 2020
  • March 2020
  • November 2019
  • November 2018
  • August 2018
  • July 2018
  • April 2018
  • December 2017
  • February 2017
  • January 2017
  • December 2016
  • November 2016
  • August 2016
  • June 2016
  • April 2016
  • March 2016
  • January 2016
  • December 2015
  • November 2015
  • October 2015
  • September 2015

Categories

  • Academic Organizations
  • Academic Research
  • Antitrust
  • Auction
  • Austria
  • Cartel
  • Corporate Social Responsibility
  • Democracy
  • Digital Economics
  • Economic Growth
  • Economics Laureates
  • Education
  • Electric Vehicles
  • Health
  • Inequality
  • Innovation
  • MBA
  • National Resident Matching Program
  • Oil
  • Online Advertising
  • Organization
  • Politics
  • Probability
  • Self-Driving Cars
  • Signaling
  • Social Dilemma
  • Statistics
  • Strategy
  • Terrorism
  • UBER
  • Voting

Meta

  • Register
  • Log in
  • Entries feed
  • Comments feed
  • WordPress.com

Blog at WordPress.com.

Privacy & Cookies: This site uses cookies. By continuing to use this website, you agree to their use.
To find out more, including how to control cookies, see here: Cookie Policy
  • Follow Following
    • A STABLE MATCH
    • Already have a WordPress.com account? Log in now.
    • A STABLE MATCH
    • Customize
    • Follow Following
    • Sign up
    • Log in
    • Report this content
    • View site in Reader
    • Manage subscriptions
    • Collapse this bar