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Monthly Archives: June 2016

Brexit and why it is worse than you might think

24 Friday Jun 2016

Posted by tjungbau in Politics, Social Dilemma

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Brexit, European Union

It seems quite certain to this hour that the people of the United Kingdom opted to leave the European Union. While the pound has started plummeting and experts have been quite robustly forecasting a drop in GDP exceeding one percent, the common Britain will most likely not face any severe personal consequences from those developments. Most likely, he is even more than willing to trade these minor caveats against some (fictitious) increase in sovereignty, the convenience of continued debate about professional athletes’ weight in stones and the triumph of the pint over half a liter of ale.

The immediate consequences of “Brexit” to the UK economy, no matter how often eloquently repeated by experts and self-proclaimed ones, represent, however, a rather minor part of the big picture. The influx of refugees from the middle East, the resurgence of terrorism in Europe and financial turmoil combine to a prolific breeding ground for nationalism and myopia.

A continent (to a large extent) disproportionately spoiled by peace and prosperity struggles to come to terms with modern reality. Uncertainty and fear augment the words of Gerd Wilders, Heinz-Christian Strache, Viktor Orban, the Le Pen clan and their equals.

Brexit might instill the belief in their minds that their long term goals of sovereignty and social austerity have never been as realizable as in this moment. While the phalanx of conservatives and social democrats in the leading economies of Europe appear to be too powerful (yet), this is far from fact for many smaller European countries and, sadly, historical evidence does not draw a too rosy picture of “a Europe” in lack of cohesion and solidarity.

Birth rates in Amazonia

09 Thursday Jun 2016

Posted by tjungbau in Probability, Statistics

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Puzzles, Statistics

To my students:

Consider the following scenario:

In the country of Amazonia boys are valued but girls are worshipped. No mother, however, wants to give birth to multiple girls in order to avoid succession struggles related to the leadership of the family. Thus, every mother gives birth to children precisely until a daughter is born to her.

a) If the probability of giving birth to a son is .5, what ratio of newborns in Amazonia are girls?

b) If the probability of giving birth to a son is 0<s<1, what ratio of newborns in Amazonia are girls?

Why luck matters more than you might think

09 Thursday Jun 2016

Posted by tjungbau in Probability, Statistics

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Chance, Luck, Success

My (in the not so far) future colleague Robert H. Frank, Professor of Economics at the Samuel P. Curtis Johnson Graduate School of Management at Cornell University, has recently published his new book “Success and Luck“.

While not denouncing the views of those who attribute unexpected turns of their lives and ventures to divine intervention or plain fate, he shares his beliefs about the ubiquity of chance as a determinant of success in both our private and business lives and indicates why many among us simply underestimate, or, alternatively put stronger, under appreciate the consequences of mere random processes. Bob convincingly argues, however, that chance does not only influence our well-being in a consequential manner but deeply affects many of our actively taken decisions.

Due to the fact that chance features prominently as a determinant of entrepreneurial success in my current work on team building, acquisition of inputs and entrepreneurship, I have admit to be naturally biased towards his chain of argumentation.

Nevertheless, I highly recommend every (in fact also non-) academic and student to read his book as it stresses a perspective of our ventures typically under represented in our ex ante analyses and ex post evaluations of actions. While featuring interesting and partially provocative content, it presents itself also easy too read due to him being a very accomplished writer (Bob Frank was a NY Times columnist for more than a decade). A synopsis of his work can be found in this recent piece of the Atlantic. A taste of the book itself is provided by Princeton University Press.

 

Goodbye Keith Murnighan

09 Thursday Jun 2016

Posted by tjungbau in Academic Organizations

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Keith Murninghan, professor at the department of Organization & Behavior at the Kellogg School of Management, Northwestern University lost his fight against cancer last Friday. While increasing vertical specialization of PhD programs leads us typically not to know most professors of other departments (while physically close there are academically enormous distances), I was lucky enough to meet Keith several times during my executive MBA teaching stints at the Evanston and Miami campuses of Kellogg. Certainly not being an expert in his research field, I am, however, aware that Keith has been a major contributor to the literature of conflict resolution, in particular opposing group and individual behavior.

More importantly though, from my subjective perspective, he was a special person treating every MBA and PhD student with the utmost respect, always showing genuine interest in one’s work. I had the opportunity to get to know him a little during social events at executive MBA teaching weekends. Not only did he possess an extraordinary interdisciplinary interested mind, but he was also one of the kindest persons I have met during my time at Kellogg. Thus it did not come as a surprise to me that I met him at multiple private graduation events of Kellogg students.

RIP!

Here you can find the official Kellogg notification.

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  • South-Korea’s new regulation on in-app purchases
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  • The Strategic Decentralization of Recruiting
  • Branding Vertical Product Line Extensions

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